Wisla Krakow 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Wisla Krakow welcome Wisla Plock to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Wisla Krakow) versus 1.10 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wisla Krakow register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wisla Krakow, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 3–4 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.37 xG and Wisla Plock 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.964 / defence 1.108 | Wisla Plock attack 1.099 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.177. Data: 2 Wisla Krakow games / 36 Wisla Plock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 35% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 35% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.37 / Wisla Plock 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.964 / def 1.108 | Wisla Plock attack 1.099 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Wisla Plock xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Wisla Krakow 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 35% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.96x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.70
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
Wisla Plock xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.43 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Wisla Krakow's scoring rate against Wisla Plock's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Krakow or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Wisla Krakow's games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's.
Shock result as Wisla Krakow defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.37 xG and Wisla Plock 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 35% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 38%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wisla Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 100%, Wisla Plock 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Wisla Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Krakow conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.