Wisla Krakow 2-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.17 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 2W 3D 1L from 6 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Krakow at 1.67 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Wisla Krakow trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 67% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 83% | Lechia Gdansk 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.32 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.029 / defence 1.037 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.758 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.102. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Wisla Krakow games / 6 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 46% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Lechia Gdansk 4.17. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 33% | Lechia Gdansk 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 46% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.32 / Lechia Gdansk 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.029 / def 1.037 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.758 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lechia Gdansk xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Wisla Krakow 2 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 46% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.37
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.18
0.86
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.86 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.67 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Wisla Krakow's scoring rate against Lechia Gdansk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 2.00 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
2
Draws
0
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Lechia Gdansk have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 33%, Lechia Gdansk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Wisla Krakow and 0% for Lechia Gdansk.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 67% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 0% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.32 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.86 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 46% | Draw 30% | Lechia Gdansk 24%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 83%, Lechia Gdansk 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.67 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.