Wisla Krakow 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 25 as Wisla Krakow welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lech Poznan — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Lech Poznan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with Lech Poznan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Krakow trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lech Poznan trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 42% versus Lech Poznan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 50% | Lech Poznan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 0.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.705 / defence 1.108 | Lech Poznan attack 1.157 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.019. Wisla Krakow's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Wisla Krakow games / 24 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 47%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Lech Poznan 2.13. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 20% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Wisla Krakow 0.82 / Lech Poznan 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.705 / def 1.108 | Lech Poznan attack 1.157 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Wisla Krakow 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 23% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.70x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
23%
4.42
30%
3.31
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.13
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.5 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.31 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 6W 5D 13L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 14W 6D 4L from 24 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Krakow are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 14W 6D 4L in their last 24 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.27 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
1
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Lech Poznan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when Wisla Krakow 1-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 18%, Lech Poznan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wisla Krakow) and 54% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 46% of games; Lech Poznan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 54% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 54% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow and Lech Poznan finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 0.82 xG and Lech Poznan 1.31 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Lech Poznan attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 23% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 47%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 50%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.