Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Cracovia Krakow to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 1D 2L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 1.10 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wieczysta Kraków, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 73% and Cracovia Krakow 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 73% | Cracovia Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.55 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / defence 1.033 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.833 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Wieczysta Kraków games / 45 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 25%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Cracovia Krakow 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wieczysta Kraków as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.55 / Cracovia Krakow 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.833 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cracovia Krakow xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.08
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
5%
19.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.15 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 5L across 11 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wieczysta Kraków on 0.73 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wieczysta Kraków have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cracovia Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wieczysta Kraków come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Wieczysta Kraków's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wieczysta Kraków at 75%, Cracovia Krakow at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wieczysta Kraków and 75% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 75% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 75% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.