Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Slask Wroclaw at in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.20 PPG versus Slask Wroclaw's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Widzew Łódź, 3 for Slask Wroclaw and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 67% and Slask Wroclaw 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Widzew Łódź 67% | Slask Wroclaw 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.72 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.184 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 6 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Slask Wroclaw 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.72 / Slask Wroclaw 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.184 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (7 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 3W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.05
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.34 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slask Wroclaw's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 0.33 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Slask Wroclaw won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
From 7 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 3-3 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 100%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Widzew Łódź and 67% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Widzew Łódź's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.