Widzew Łódź 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Widzew Łódź.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 48% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.935 / defence 0.876 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.946 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.199. Data: 43 Widzew Łódź games / 42 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Raków Częstochowa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.39 / Raków Częstochowa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.935 / def 0.876 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.946 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Raków Częstochowa xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 45% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 4W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.41
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.99 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 7D 21L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 42 outings (22W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 10W 3D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 2.00 points per game from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 14W 7D 21L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 11D 9L in their last 42 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.57 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Widzew Łódź 33% BTTS, Raków Częstochowa 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Widzew Łódź and 29% for Raków Częstochowa.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 57%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 29% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.39 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 45% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.