Widzew Łódź 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Widzew Łódź are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–1 Raków Częstochowa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Raków Częstochowa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.028 / defence 0.956 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.139. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 63 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 63.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.29 | Draw 3.32 | Raków Częstochowa 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 50% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.44 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.028 / def 0.956 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.980 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 30) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 63 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.32
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.51
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 14D 26L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.92 PPG from 63 outings (35W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 14W 3D 14L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 9D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.79 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 16D 12L in their last 63 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.45 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Raków Częstochowa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 52% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 61% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 52% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 71% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Raków Częstochowa 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.