Widzew Łódź 1-0 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Miedz Legnica at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Miedz Legnica stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Widzew Łódź have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Miedz Legnica in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 33% versus Miedz Legnica 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Miedz Legnica 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.78 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.059 / defence 0.913 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.887 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.147. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Widzew Łódź games / 12 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 19%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Miedz Legnica 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Miedz Legnica 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.78 / Miedz Legnica 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.059 / def 0.913 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.887 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Miedz Legnica xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 58% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 1.06x the league average against Miedz Legnica's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.33
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.71
0.93
Miedz Legnica xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
30.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.93 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 7W 2D 3L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Widzew Łódź are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica in 75%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Miedz Legnica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.67 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 50%, Miedz Legnica at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Widzew Łódź and 67% for Miedz Legnica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Widzew Łódź's games and 83% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 67% of Miedz Legnica's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Miedz Legnica 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Miedz Legnica 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.78 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.93 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Miedz Legnica landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.89 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 58% | Draw 23% | Miedz Legnica 19%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Miedz Legnica 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.