Widzew Łódź 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Widzew Łódź, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Legia Warszawa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.962 / defence 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.080 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.177. Data: 57 Widzew Łódź games / 57 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 40% | Legia Warszawa 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.44 / Legia Warszawa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.962 / def 1.153 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.080 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Legia Warszawa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.96) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.39
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
Legia Warszawa xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.47 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 19W 12D 26L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 11L across 57 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 11W 3D 14L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 17D 11L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.29 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Legia Warszawa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Widzew Łódź) and 43% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 32%; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.