Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Widzewa Łódź — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Widzew Łódź. A 0.90 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Korona Kielce have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Widzew Łódź's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Korona Kielce winning.
It is worth noting that Korona Kielce have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Korona Kielce 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Korona Kielce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.51 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.015 / defence 1.004 | Korona Kielce attack 0.819 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.157. Data: 37 Widzew Łódź games / 36 Korona Kielce games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 22%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Korona Kielce 4.55. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Korona Kielce lead the H2H ledger, but Widzew Łódź carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Korona Kielce 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.51 / Korona Kielce 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.015 / def 1.004 | Korona Kielce attack 0.819 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 49% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.82x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.43
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.95 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 8D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.22 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.14 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Korona Kielce away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.71 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 59%, Korona Kielce 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Widzew Łódź) and 35% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Widzew Łódź's games and 53% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 35% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.51 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Korona Kielce attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 22%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.22 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.