Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jagiellonia are 0.80 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 51% and Jagiellonia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Jagiellonia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Jagiellonia 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.810 / defence 1.118 | Jagiellonia attack 1.288 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.197. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Widzew Łódź games / 53 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 44%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Jagiellonia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Jagiellonia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.44 / Jagiellonia 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.810 / def 1.118 | Jagiellonia attack 1.288 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Jagiellonia xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 31% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.81) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.29x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
31%
3.20
25%
3.96
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.16
1.72
Jagiellonia xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.72 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 14L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.49 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 10W 3D 13L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 4W 14D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.75 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 20W 19D 14L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.27 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Jagiellonia 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 58% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Widzew Łódź's games and 77% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 58% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Jagiellonia 1.72 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Jagiellonia attack 1.29 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 44%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Jagiellonia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.