Warta Poznań 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Warta Poznań welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 3L across 7 games at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this term (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 0W 0D 7L from 7 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wisla Plock are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 21% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 21% | Wisla Plock 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.08 xG and Wisla Plock 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.501 / defence 1.115 | Wisla Plock attack 0.920 / defence 1.828. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.213. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.501 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.828 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Warta Poznań games / 14 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 31% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 39%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Plock 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 29% | Wisla Plock 71%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 31% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Warta Poznań 1.08 / Wisla Plock 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.501 / def 1.115 | Wisla Plock attack 0.920 / def 1.828 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Wisla Plock xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Warta Poznań 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock part of?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 31% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.50x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
31%
3.23
30%
3.33
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.33
1.24
Wisla Plock xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.24 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 7L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Warta Poznań heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Warta Poznań have managed 0W 4D 3L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 0W 0D 7L across 7 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Warta Poznań come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Wisla Plock away?
Warta Poznań's home record (0.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.57 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Wisla Plock have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2022, when Wisla Plock won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2023, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 29%, Wisla Plock 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Warta Poznań) and 71% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 71% of games; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 71% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 71% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Warta Poznań 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Warta Poznań 1-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.08 xG and Wisla Plock 1.24 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.50 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 1.83, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 31% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 39%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 21%, Wisla Plock 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.