Warta Poznań 1-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to face Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 6 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Warta Poznań's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season: 0W 4D 4L from 8 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Warta Poznań 25% | Wisla Krakow 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 25% | Wisla Krakow 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.83 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.493 / defence 1.190 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.721 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.203. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.493 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Warta Poznań games / 16 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Wisla Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Krakow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 38% | Wisla Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Wisla Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Warta Poznań 0.83 / Wisla Krakow 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.493 / def 1.190 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.721 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Wisla Krakow xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 29% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.49) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.72x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
29%
3.48
32%
3.13
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.87
1.03
Wisla Krakow xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.03 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 2W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.69 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.06 for Wisla Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Wisla Krakow's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.50 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 38%, Wisla Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Warta Poznań) and 62% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 62% of games; Wisla Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 62% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Wisla Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.83 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.03 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.49 / defence 1.19 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Wisla Krakow 39%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 25%, Wisla Krakow 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 0.69 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.