Warta Poznań 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 32% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.066 / defence 0.935 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.137 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Warta Poznań games / 66 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 32% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 37%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 60% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 32% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Warta Poznań 1.03 / Piast Gliwice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.066 / def 0.935 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.137 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 32% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.15
1.12
Piast Gliwice xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.12 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 17D 26L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 29W 16D 21L from 66 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.30 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (9W 12D 12L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 8D 9L from 33 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.23 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 23W 17D 26L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 29W 16D 21L in their last 66 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.18 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 54%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Warta Poznań and 24% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 39%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 33% of games; Piast Gliwice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 24% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 33, as Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.14 / defence 0.71, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 32% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 37%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 32%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.30 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.