Warta Poznań 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 43%, yet in-form Cracovia Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Warta Poznań's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Respect Energy — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at Stadion Respect Energy than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cracovia Krakow arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 42% versus Cracovia Krakow 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 34% | Cracovia Krakow 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / defence 1.043 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.131 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 0.932. Data: 39 Warta Poznań games / 38 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 50% | Cracovia Krakow 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Warta Poznań 1.37 / Cracovia Krakow 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / def 1.043 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.131 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.402 / away 0.932 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.13x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.72
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.10 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 11D 14L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.42 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 6D 8L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.24 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.37 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Cracovia Krakow 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Warta Poznań) and 42% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 26% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 53% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Warta Poznań's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 6, as Warta Poznań and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 43% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 30%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 34%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.