Stal Mielec 4-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion MOSiR to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 3W 0D 2L at Stadion MOSiR — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 5W 0D 4L across 9 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.67 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Zaglebie Lubin in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 44% versus Zaglebie Lubin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 44% | Zaglebie Lubin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.15 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.800 / defence 1.153 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.782 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.163. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Stal Mielec games / 9 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 20% | Zaglebie Lubin 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Stal Mielec 1.15 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.800 / def 1.153 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.782 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Stal Mielec 4 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 38% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-0D-4L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.80) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.78x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.44
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.20
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.05 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 5W 0D 4L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zaglebie Lubin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stal Mielec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Stal Mielec's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 2.25 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stal Mielec won 3-0 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Stal Mielec) and 0% (Zaglebie Lubin) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stal Mielec) and 50% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 50%; Zaglebie Lubin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 0% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Zaglebie Lubin 4-2 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.15 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 33%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 44%, Zaglebie Lubin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.