Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 3W 5D 0L across 8 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Slask Wroclaw. A 0.50 PPG lead over Wisla Plock (1.75 vs 1.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 75% versus Wisla Plock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 38% | Wisla Plock 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG and Wisla Plock 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.823 / defence 0.991 | Wisla Plock attack 0.859 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.141. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing Slask Wroclaw's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Slask Wroclaw games / 8 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 26%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 3.85. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Wisla Plock 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.43 / Wisla Plock 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.823 / def 0.991 | Wisla Plock attack 0.859 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Slask Wroclaw 3 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 47% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-5D-0L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.82) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.86x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.70
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.40
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.97 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 5D 0L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 5D 0L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Wisla Plock away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.50 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slask Wroclaw have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
0
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 50%, Wisla Plock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Slask Wroclaw) and 50% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 50% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Wisla Plock 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.43 xG and Wisla Plock 0.97 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Wisla Plock attack 0.86 / defence 1.52, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 47% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 26%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 38%, Wisla Plock 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.