Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 0.80 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 60% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 44% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.844 / defence 1.088 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.930 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.028. Data: 63 Slask Wroclaw games / 63 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Radomiak Radom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 60% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.15 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.844 / def 1.088 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.930 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 36% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.84) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.03
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 24D 25L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 20W 23D 20L from 63 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.05 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (7W 14D 10L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 12D 10L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.11 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 14W 24D 25L in their last 63 games (1.05 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 23D 20L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.13 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Radomiak Radom 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Slask Wroclaw) and 42% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 36% of games; Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 42% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 44%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.05 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.