Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 7W 2D 1L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Slask Wroclaw have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Raków Częstochowa's favour (2.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Slask Wroclaw 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Slask Wroclaw 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.69 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.235 / defence 0.938 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.896 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.095. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Raków Częstochowa games / 27 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Slask Wroclaw 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Slask Wroclaw 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.69 / Slask Wroclaw 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.235 / def 0.938 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.896 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Slask Wroclaw xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 55% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.90x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.83
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.62
0.92
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
28.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.92 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 27 games, going 16W 7D 4L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 8W 4D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 63%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 4L in their last 27 games (2.04 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.15 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 46%, Slask Wroclaw 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Raków Częstochowa and 62% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 69% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 62% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 1-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.69 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.92 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 19%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 56%, Slask Wroclaw 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.