Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 1.90 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Radomiak Radom 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 57% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.312 / defence 0.806 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.878 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.208. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Radomiak Radom's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Raków Częstochowa games / 43 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.42 / Radomiak Radom 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.312 / def 0.806 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.878 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 50% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
50%
1.98
27%
3.70
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.28
0.85
Radomiak Radom xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.85 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 25W 10D 7L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 15W 16D 11L from 42 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.35 PPG from 20 outings (14W 5D 1L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 8D 6L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 16D 11L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.35 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 45%, Radomiak Radom 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Raków Częstochowa) and 35% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 35% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Radomiak Radom 3-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.85 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 50% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 57%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.