Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Raków. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Raków this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 2W 3D 2L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.80 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 67% and Pogon Szczecin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 83% | Pogon Szczecin 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.51 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.391 / defence 1.303 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.776 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.225. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Raków Częstochowa games / 13 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 30%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 75% | Pogon Szczecin 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.51 / Pogon Szczecin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.391 / def 1.303 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.776 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.39x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.68
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 7W 4D 1L from 12 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 2L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 2.08 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.67 scored and 0.83 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's scoring rate against Pogon Szczecin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.00 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 75%, Pogon Szczecin 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Raków Częstochowa) and 0% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 25% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Raków Częstochowa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.51 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.39 / defence 1.30 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 83%, Pogon Szczecin 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 2.08 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.