Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.60 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Pogon Szczecin, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 40% | Pogon Szczecin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.92 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.153 / defence 0.821 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.901 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.172. Data: 45 Raków Częstochowa games / 45 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 62% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 16%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Pogon Szczecin 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Pogon Szczecin 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 62% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.92 / Pogon Szczecin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.153 / def 0.821 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.901 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pogon Szczecin xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 62% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 4W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.15x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.63
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.79
0.87
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
41.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.87 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 21W 12D 12L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 15L across 45 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.67 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 12W 6D 4L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.69 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Pogon Szczecin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 22W 8D 15L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.91 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 41%, Pogon Szczecin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Raków Częstochowa) and 46% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.92 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 62% | Draw 22% | Pogon Szczecin 16%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Pogon Szczecin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.67 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.