Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Raków Częstochowa face Lechia Gdansk.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Monday 3 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Raków Częstochowa's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Raków Częstochowa at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Lechia Gdansk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Lechia Gdansk away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lechia Gdansk's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Lechia Gdansk — Lechia Gdansk have 1 win, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2024, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Lechia Gdansk — a Raków Częstochowa win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.

Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 32% versus Lechia Gdansk 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Raków Częstochowa 27% | Lechia Gdansk 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.55 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.957 / defence 0.884 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.061 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.152. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 56 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 22.

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 26%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 3.94 | Lechia Gdansk 3.78. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights