Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków to take on Raków Częstochowa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 7W 2D 1L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 58% | Cracovia Krakow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.166 / defence 0.942 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.669 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.261. Data: 31 Raków Częstochowa games / 31 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.34 / Cracovia Krakow 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.166 / def 0.942 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.669 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cracovia Krakow xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 49% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 0W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.17) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.34
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.14
0.80
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.80 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 31 games, going 19W 8D 4L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (11W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 9W 5D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.16 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 19W 8D 4L in their last 31 games (2.10 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 9D 11L in their last 31 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.13 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 53%, Cracovia Krakow 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Raków Częstochowa) and 40% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 47% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 40% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.80 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.17 / defence 0.94 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.67 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 58%, Cracovia Krakow 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.