Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 28 as Radomiak Radom welcome Wisla Plock to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Wisla Plock and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Wisla Plock trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 69% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.77 xG and Wisla Plock 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.944 / defence 1.009 | Wisla Plock attack 0.900 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 23%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 4.35. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.77 / Wisla Plock 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.944 / def 1.009 | Wisla Plock attack 0.900 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wisla Plock xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 3 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.46
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.95
1.18
Wisla Plock xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
4%
25.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 15L across 39 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.23 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Wisla Plock away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 70%, Wisla Plock at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.