Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.20 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Radomiak Radom, 3 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Widzew Łódź 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.31 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.944 / defence 1.009 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 34%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.31 / Widzew Łódź 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.944 / def 1.009 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 33% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.94x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.10
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.65
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.34 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 13W 12D 15L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 18L across 40 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.20 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 70%, Widzew Łódź 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Radomiak Radom) and 45% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.