Radomiak Radom 2-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stal Mielec at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Radomiak Radom welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stal Mielec are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Stal Mielec and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 39% versus Stal Mielec 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Stal Mielec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG and Stal Mielec 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.819 / defence 1.231 | Stal Mielec attack 0.983 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.167. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 56 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Stal Mielec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.23 / Stal Mielec 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.819 / def 1.231 | Stal Mielec attack 0.983 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Stal Mielec xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 31% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.82x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.41
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.64
1.41
Stal Mielec xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.41 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 18W 15D 23L from 56 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 21L across 56 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.23 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 8W 5D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.16 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Stal Mielec away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.07 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 43%, Stal Mielec 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Radomiak Radom) and 43% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 43% of games; Stal Mielec in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 39% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 43% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Stal Mielec 2-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG and Stal Mielec 1.41 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Stal Mielec attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 31% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 40%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Stal Mielec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.