Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Motor Lublin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Motor Lublin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Motor Lublin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Motor Lublin's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Motor Lublin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Motor Lublin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Motor Lublin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 61% | Motor Lublin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / defence 0.895 | Motor Lublin attack 0.769 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Radomiak Radom games / 33 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 60% | Draw 23% | Motor Lublin 17%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Motor Lublin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Motor Lublin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 60% | Draw 23% | Motor Lublin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.83 / Motor Lublin 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / def 0.895 | Motor Lublin attack 0.769 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Motor Lublin xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 3 Motor Lublin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 60% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 0 | Motor Lublin 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.97x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.77x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.40
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.68
0.86
Motor Lublin xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
36.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.86 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (13W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.39 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.36 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Motor Lublin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Motor Lublin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.44 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 69%, Motor Lublin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 62% (Motor Lublin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 62% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Radomiak Radom 2-3 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.83 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Motor Lublin attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 60% | Draw 23% | Motor Lublin 17%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 61%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.