Puszcza Niepołomice 1-3 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 8 as Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Slask Wroclaw to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slask Wroclaw are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Puszcza Niepołomice register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Puszcza Niepołomice 57% and Slask Wroclaw 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 43% | Slask Wroclaw 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.886 / defence 1.097 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.163 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 0.901. Data: 7 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 41 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 33% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 35%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Slask Wroclaw 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Puszcza Niepołomice 67% | Slask Wroclaw 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 33% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 / Slask Wroclaw 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.886 / def 1.097 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.163 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.345 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 3 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 33% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.89x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.10
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.25
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.15 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slask Wroclaw are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 2.33 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 67%, Slask Wroclaw 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 33% for Slask Wroclaw.
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 33% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 33% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Puszcza Niepołomice 1-3 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 33% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 35%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 43%, Slask Wroclaw 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slask Wroclaw arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.