Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Puszcza Niepołomice face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin meet at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pogon Szczecin arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Pogon Szczecin, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
It is worth noting that Pogon Szczecin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 57% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 40% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.26 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.985 / defence 1.082 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.028 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.215. Data: 63 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 63 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 35% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 39%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 60% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 35% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.26 / Pogon Szczecin 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.985 / def 1.082 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.028 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Puszcza Niepołomice 4 - 5 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.03x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.81
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.35 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 15W 22D 26L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 31W 12D 20L from 63 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (11W 14D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 15W 22D 26L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 31W 12D 20L in their last 63 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.52 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 68%, Pogon Szczecin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 36%; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 42% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.26 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 35% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 39%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 40%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.