Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 3 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 46% and Slask Wroclaw 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 27% | Slask Wroclaw 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.01 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / defence 0.794 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 11 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 59% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 14%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Slask Wroclaw 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 59% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.01 / Slask Wroclaw 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / def 0.794 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Slask Wroclaw xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 59% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.02x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.71
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.98
0.97
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
51.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.97 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 6W 4D 1L from 11 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 7L across 11 games — 0.55 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 91%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.83 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 50%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pogon Szczecin) and 83% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 83% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.