Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 30 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 2 for Pogon Szczecin.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 54% and Raków Częstochowa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Raków Częstochowa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.65 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / defence 0.794 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.019 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 45 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 4.76. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Pogon Szczecin carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 47% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.65 / Raków Częstochowa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / def 0.794 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.019 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 6W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.02x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.18
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.73
1.08
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
4%
24.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.08 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 19W 9D 16L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 20L across 44 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.50 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 8W 3D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.48 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.81 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 62%, Raków Częstochowa at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pogon Szczecin) and 67% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 76% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.