Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 7 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Raków Częstochowa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 1.60 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Pogon Szczecin.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 47% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.139 / defence 1.123 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.071 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.229. Data: 40 Pogon Szczecin games / 38 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 35%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Raków Częstochowa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Raków Częstochowa 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.61 / Raków Częstochowa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.139 / def 1.123 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.071 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.14x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.19
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.09
1.48
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.48 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 18W 7D 13L from 38 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 7L across 38 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.61 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 13W 2D 3L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 10W 6D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.50 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 22W 9D 7L in their last 38 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.28 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 33%, Raków Częstochowa 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pogon Szczecin) and 33% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 33% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.61 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 35%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.61 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.