Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pogon Szczecin face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Pogon Szczecin have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Radomiak Radom's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.20 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Radomiak Radom managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 4–0 Radomiak Radom — a Pogon Szczecin win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 64% versus Radomiak Radom 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 61% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / defence 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 0.937. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 36 games and Radomiak Radom's last 37.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.89 | Draw 4.16 | Radomiak Radom 4.33. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.70 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.236 / def 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.018 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.444 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 4) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.02x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 36 games and Radomiak Radom's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 19W 9D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 13W 7D 16L from 36 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 4D 3L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 3D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 0.97 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 8L in their last 36 games (1.83 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 7D 16L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.06 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Radomiak Radom on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 67%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Pogon Szczecin and 50% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 67% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.70 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 61%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.