Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Korona Kielce (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Korona Kielce haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Korona Kielce away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.50 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 44% versus Korona Kielce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.66 xG and Korona Kielce 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.092 / defence 0.989 | Korona Kielce attack 0.917 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.107. Data: 34 Pogon Szczecin games / 34 Korona Kielce games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Korona Kielce 4.76. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Korona Kielce 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.66 / Korona Kielce 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.092 / def 0.989 | Korona Kielce attack 0.917 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Korona Kielce xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 51% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 2 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.09) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.92x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.50
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
Korona Kielce xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.00 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 7D 11L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. Pogon Szczecin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (8W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. Korona Kielce haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 9W 2D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Korona Kielce's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Pre-Season
Korona Kielce
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 8W 14D 12L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.71 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 53%, Korona Kielce 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Pogon Szczecin) and 41% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 53% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 41% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.66 xG and Korona Kielce 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Korona Kielce landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Korona Kielce attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 21%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.