Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 1W 6D 1L from 8 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.60 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Wisla Plock 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 42% | Wisla Plock 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.848 / defence 0.827 | Wisla Plock attack 0.829 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.200. Data: 53 Piast Gliwice games / 19 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 24%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Plock 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 30% | Wisla Plock 88%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.19 / Wisla Plock 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.848 / def 0.827 | Wisla Plock attack 0.829 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Wisla Plock xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.85x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.83x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.12
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.02
0.82
Wisla Plock xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.82 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 5D 8L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (8W 9D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (1W 6D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.21 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 2L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Wisla Plock away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.50 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 38%, Wisla Plock 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Piast Gliwice and 12% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Piast Gliwice's games and 88% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 12% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.82 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 24%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 42%, Wisla Plock 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.