Piast Gliwice 0-2 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Warta Poznań at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Warta Poznań's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Warta Poznań and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Warta Poznań 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 35% | Warta Poznań 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.91 xG and Warta Poznań 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.941 / defence 1.066 | Warta Poznań attack 1.067 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.203. Warta Poznań's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Piast Gliwice games / 49 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 47%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Warta Poznań 2.13. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Piast Gliwice 0.91 / Warta Poznań 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.941 / def 1.066 | Warta Poznań attack 1.067 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 2 Warta Poznań.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 24% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
Record (2 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.48
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.27
1.37
Warta Poznań xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.20
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.37 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 13D 18L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań's form line: 17W 12D 20L from 49 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.37 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 12W 3D 9L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.02 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 17W 12D 20L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.33 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 58%, Warta Poznań 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Piast Gliwice) and 25% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 46%; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 17% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 25% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Warta Poznań cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.91 xG and Warta Poznań 1.37 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Warta Poznań attack 1.07 / defence 0.74, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 47%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 35%, Warta Poznań 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.37 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.