Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Piast Gliwice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Raków Częstochowa in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Piast Gliwice's 3, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Piast Gliwice 59% and Raków Częstochowa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 56% | Raków Częstochowa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.01 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.233 / defence 1.197 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.979 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Data: 41 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.01 / Raków Częstochowa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.233 / def 1.197 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.979 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 47% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 7W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.98x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.71
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.51
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
4%
28.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.50 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 14W 9D 16L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 16W 7D 16L from 39 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.41 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.46 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 16L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.47 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Piast Gliwice, 74% for Raków Częstochowa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Piast Gliwice) and 63% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Piast Gliwice's games and 74% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 63% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.