Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 48% versus Radomiak Radom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 41% | Radomiak Radom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / defence 1.038 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.958 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.156. Data: 59 Piast Gliwice games / 59 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Radomiak Radom lead the H2H ledger, but Piast Gliwice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 50% | Radomiak Radom 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.24 / Radomiak Radom 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / def 1.038 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.958 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (9 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 5 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 0.85x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.30
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
Radomiak Radom xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.15 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 23L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 11D 9L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.51 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.31 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 41%, Radomiak Radom 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Piast Gliwice) and 69% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Piast Gliwice's games and 72% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 69% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 41%, Radomiak Radom 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.