Piast Gliwice 0-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Piast Gliwice are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 2.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 32% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.847 / defence 0.858 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.153 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.037. Data: 63 Piast Gliwice games / 63 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Pogon Szczecin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Pogon Szczecin lead the H2H ledger, but Piast Gliwice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Pogon Szczecin 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.05 / Pogon Szczecin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.847 / def 0.858 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.153 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 34% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
34%
2.95
33%
2.99
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.08
1.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.03 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 27W 15D 21L from 63 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 32W 19D 12L across 63 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.52 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 14W 11D 6L across 31 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.75 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 27W 15D 21L in their last 63 games (1.52 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 19D 12L in their last 63 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.39 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 55%, Pogon Szczecin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Piast Gliwice) and 39% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 32%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 55% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 39% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, as Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.03 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.52 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.