Piast Gliwice 2-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Miedz Legnica in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Miedz Legnica (all games): 1W 1D 4L across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Miedz Legnica have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Miedz Legnica have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Piast Gliwice. A 0.63 PPG lead over Miedz Legnica (1.30 vs 0.67) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Miedz Legnica half-time and goal-timing data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 0% versus Miedz Legnica 83%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 17% | Miedz Legnica 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.94 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.111 / defence 0.829 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.824 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.176. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Piast Gliwice games / 6 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 64% | Draw 21% | Miedz Legnica 15%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Miedz Legnica 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 40% | Miedz Legnica 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 64% | Draw 21% | Miedz Legnica 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.94 / Miedz Legnica 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.111 / def 0.829 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.824 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Miedz Legnica xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 64% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Miedz Legnica's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Miedz Legnica's attack (0.82x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.73
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.74
0.80
Miedz Legnica xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
47.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.80 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 4L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 0.67 for Miedz Legnica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.00 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Miedz Legnica in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Miedz Legnica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Have Piast Gliwice or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 0%, Miedz Legnica 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Piast Gliwice) and 67% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Miedz Legnica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 83% of Miedz Legnica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 67% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Miedz Legnica 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.94 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.80 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.82 / defence 1.36, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 64% | Draw 21% | Miedz Legnica 15%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 17%, Miedz Legnica 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.00 PPG, Miedz Legnica 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.