Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nieciecza host Radomiak Radom at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Nieciecza — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.20 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nieciecza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 64% and Radomiak Radom 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 46% | Radomiak Radom 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / defence 1.255 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.155. Nieciecza's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Nieciecza games / 55 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 60% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Nieciecza 1.16 / Radomiak Radom 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / def 1.255 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Nieciecza 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 29% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.77) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.50
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.60
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.44 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza's recent record stands at 5W 6D 11L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 8L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nieciecza on 0.95 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nieciecza have managed 2W 3D 6L from 11 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.73 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Nieciecza's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.82 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nieciecza
4
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nieciecza at 64%, Radomiak Radom at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nieciecza) and 73% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nieciecza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nieciecza's games and 82% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Nieciecza's matches and 73% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 23, as Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 46%, Radomiak Radom 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.95 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.