Nieciecza 0-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza to face Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Nieciecza (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's home record at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Nieciecza, 0.90 for Legia Warszawa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 70% versus Legia Warszawa 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 60% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.57 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 1.051 / defence 1.376 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.858 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.207. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Nieciecza games / 20 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 41% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 35%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Legia Warszawa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nieciecza at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nieciecza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 90% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 41% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Nieciecza 1.57 / Legia Warszawa 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 1.051 / def 1.376 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.858 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Nieciecza 0 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 41% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 1.05x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.86x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
3.00
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.43 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nieciecza come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 6D 11L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (6W 0D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Nieciecza against 0.90 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nieciecza's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Nieciecza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (2W 0D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nieciecza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nieciecza are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 0D 14L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Nieciecza's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.20 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 4-1 on 15 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
2
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 90% for Nieciecza, 50% for Legia Warszawa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Nieciecza and 50% for Legia Warszawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Nieciecza's games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Nieciecza's matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nieciecza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 22, as Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.57 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nieciecza fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 41% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 35%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 60%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.75 PPG, Legia Warszawa 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.