Nieciecza 0-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza plays host to Nieciecza versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nieciecza's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nieciecza have posted 1W 2D 2L at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's away record: 1W 3D 1L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lechia Gdansk arrive in superior form — a 1.12 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.78) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Lechia Gdansk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Nieciecza half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 78% and Lechia Gdansk 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 56% | Lechia Gdansk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 1.003 / defence 1.314 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.077 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.191. Data: 9 Nieciecza games / 10 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 46%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Lechia Gdansk 2.17. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 100% | Lechia Gdansk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Nieciecza 1.34 / Lechia Gdansk 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 1.003 / def 1.314 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.077 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Lechia Gdansk xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Nieciecza 0 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 31% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nieciecza's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.08x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.20
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
3.03
1.69
Lechia Gdansk xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.62
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.69 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Nieciecza have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nieciecza have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nieciecza are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.89 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Lechia Gdansk's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.00 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nieciecza or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nieciecza have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lechia Gdansk won 5-1 on 29 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
0
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Nieciecza 3-2 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nieciecza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Nieciecza, 50% for Lechia Gdansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Nieciecza and 50% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nieciecza's games and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nieciecza's matches and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Nieciecza and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nieciecza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Nieciecza 0-2 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.69 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nieciecza fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 31% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 46%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 56%, Lechia Gdansk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.