Nieciecza 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nieciecza host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nieciecza have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nieciecza's home record at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 0.50 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 75% and Cracovia Krakow 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 50% | Cracovia Krakow 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.52 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.925 / defence 1.399 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.635 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.054. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Nieciecza games / 5 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. Nieciecza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nieciecza at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nieciecza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nieciecza 100% | Cracovia Krakow 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nieciecza 1.52 / Cracovia Krakow 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.925 / def 1.399 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.635 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Nieciecza 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 49% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.93) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.33
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.45
0.94
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nieciecza and 0.94 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nieciecza come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nieciecza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nieciecza on 0.50 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Nieciecza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
0
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 75%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Nieciecza and 75% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nieciecza's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nieciecza's matches and 75% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Nieciecza and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Nieciecza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Nieciecza 1-2 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.52 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.94 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.93 / defence 1.40 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.64 / defence 1.41, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Cracovia Krakow 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.50 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.