Legia Warszawa 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 23 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 51% versus Zaglebie Lubin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Zaglebie Lubin 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.62 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.225 / defence 0.987 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.087 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.196. Data: 35 Legia Warszawa games / 35 Zaglebie Lubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.62 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.225 / def 0.987 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.087 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.23x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.09x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.63
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.91
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.28 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 5D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (11W 6D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.11 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 10W 0D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (4W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.23 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 13W 5D 17L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 11W 6D 18L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.76 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 41%, Zaglebie Lubin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Legia Warszawa and 65% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.62 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Zaglebie Lubin 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.26 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.