Legia Warszawa 2-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Legia Warszawa welcome Wisla Krakow to Polish Army Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Polish Army Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polish Army Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 5W 2D 2L from 9 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.89 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.89 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.89 (Wisla Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 78% and Wisla Krakow 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 44% | Wisla Krakow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.21 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.152 / defence 0.822 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.003 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.351. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Legia Warszawa games / 9 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 15%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Wisla Krakow 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Polish Army Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.21 / Wisla Krakow 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.152 / def 0.822 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.003 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wisla Krakow xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Polish Army Stadium.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Polish Army Stadium.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 60% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.15x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.02
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.33
1.11
Wisla Krakow xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
2%
59.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.11 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 4D 0L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 2.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded. Wisla Krakow's attacking output running into Legia Warszawa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.00 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Wisla Krakow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Legia Warszawa at 75%, Wisla Krakow at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Legia Warszawa and 75% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Legia Warszawa's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 75% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Krakow 2-0 at Polish Army Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.21 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.11 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Wisla Krakow attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 15%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 44%, Wisla Krakow 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 2.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.