Legia Warszawa 2-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 2.10 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Widzew Łódź 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 52% versus Widzew Łódź 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.45 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 1.118 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.781 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.095. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Legia Warszawa games / 21 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 4.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Widzew Łódź 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.45 / Widzew Łódź 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 1.118 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.781 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Widzew Łódź xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.28) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.47
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
Widzew Łódź xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.96 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 21 games, going 12W 6D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 2.00 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 7W 3D 0L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.70 points per game from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Widzew Łódź in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 12W 6D 3L in their last 21 games (2.00 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.40 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 60%, Widzew Łódź 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 40% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 60%; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 20% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 40% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.45 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.28 / defence 1.12 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 2.00 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.