Legia Warszawa 1-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 7 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Legia Warszawa. A 0.70 PPG lead over Slask Wroclaw (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 41% versus Slask Wroclaw 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Slask Wroclaw 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.913 / defence 1.310 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.956 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.054. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Legia Warszawa games / 23 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 34%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Slask Wroclaw 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 40% | Slask Wroclaw 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.40 / Slask Wroclaw 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.913 / def 1.310 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.956 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Slask Wroclaw xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 37% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.91) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.96x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
37%
2.67
29%
3.44
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.32
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.32 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 1D 14L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.14 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 1D 14L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.36 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 36%, Slask Wroclaw 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 64% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 73% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 64% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Slask Wroclaw 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.32 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.91 / defence 1.31 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.96 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 34%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Slask Wroclaw 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.