Legia Warszawa 0-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 55% versus Slask Wroclaw 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Slask Wroclaw 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.099 / defence 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.971 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.116. Data: 62 Legia Warszawa games / 62 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 48% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 23%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Slask Wroclaw 4.35. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 80% | Slask Wroclaw 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 48% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.56 / Slask Wroclaw 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.099 / def 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.971 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 48% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.10) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.97x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.45
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.02 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 31W 19D 12L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 23W 19D 20L from 62 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.42 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.16 PPG from 31 outings (19W 10D 2L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.18 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 31W 19D 12L in their last 62 games (1.81 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.16 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Slask Wroclaw 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Legia Warszawa) and 36% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 32%; Slask Wroclaw in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 48% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 36% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Legia Warszawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.56 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 48% | Draw 29% | Slask Wroclaw 23%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Slask Wroclaw 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.81 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.